When it comes to fake meat there are two flavors of skepticism. The first is an instinctive and powerful distrust of something so unnatural and a consequent grasp for anything to discredit it. Because the conclusion that fake meat must always be bad drives their analysis, adherents to this view will grab onto any negative possibility. They will argue that it’s disgusting, is unhealthy for humans and for the environment, and could only get a toehold in the market by tricking governments into subsidizing it. The other skeptics are less emotionally charged about the idea of meat substitutes and instead focus on the immense challenges those substitutes face. Until fake meat is as cheap or cheaper and as tasty or tastier than the real thing, they say, it will never be more than a niche product.
The news that Beyond, a company built on the premise that flavored pea protein could replace beef and pork, has gone bankrupt suggests all is not well in the world of fake meat. The company has since denied those rumors, but from my reading of the reporting they are in dire straits. Still, we should be careful about how much we read into the likely demise of one particular company, even if it’s the most visible company in a category. Meat is a trillion dollar industry, and meat production is a messy business. People, some with genuinely altruistic motivations, some with dollar signs dancing in their imaginations, most with both, will keep attempting to make an alternative.
I’ve eaten a Beyond burger once, and I thought it was totally fine. It was bland even in comparison to feedlot beef, and I could detect the faintest whiff of vegetable rising from the patty. But with a bun and a lot of toppings it was completely serviceable, if not nearly delicious enough that I would seek it out. And this, I think, should be the default explanation for why Beyond failed; the product simply was not good enough.
It would be a mistake to see this as total vindication for the first group of skeptics I described. The fact that customers, after trying Beyond Sausage on their Dunkin Donuts breakfast sandwich, did not go back for seconds, only proves that they didn’t much care for it, especially at a premium price point. Many people were willing to give it a go, and if it had tasted great I suspect they would have kept ordering it.
I don’t know whether anyone will be able to make a meat substitute people prefer in comparison to the real thing, but I’m not betting against it. If lab grown meat can get cheap enough, which is unlikely but possible, it will do the job. In the past I’ve written about producing animal protein in plants, which I view as a likelier route.
It may surprise some of you reading this to know that I am not particularly angry about the prospect of a meat substitute, despite being a farmer. Many people attempting to develop meat alternatives are doing so for the same reason I farm the way I do. We are motivated by a shared critique of factory farming. The big difference is in the prescription. Fake meat would use the tools of the industrial food system to blunt its worst excesses. I would prefer to build a better system.